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09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Cain tries to make it two straight wins against the club that has given him more trouble than any other team in his young career when the San Francisco Giants continue their three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers this evening at Dodger Stadium.
Cain is a miserable 1-8 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 3.94 ERA in 15 starts. However, his lone win against them came the last time he faced them back on August 1, when he scattered four hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings.
"It's obviously been a problem beating [the Dodgers]," Cain said after that elusive first victory. "It's one of those things where definitely I wanted to go out and win."
Cain, who is 10-10 with a 3.11 ERA on the year, did not get a decision on Sunday against Arizona, as he allowed three runs and six hits in 6 1/3 innings of his team's 9-7 win. He also struck out seven and walked a batter.
Opposing him will be Ted Lilly, who will be trying to rebound from his first loss as a Dodger.
Lilly saw his five-start winning streak come to an end Sunday in Colorado, as the Rockies reached him for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings. It was his first loss cine July 9 and dropped him to 8-9 on the season, while raising his earned run average to 3.59.
The 34-year-old left-hander is 3-1 with a 5.12 ERA in five starts against the Giants.
On Friday, Chad Billingsley was strong through eight innings of work and drove in the game-winning runs at the plate to carry Los Angeles to a 4-2 win in the opener of this set.
Billingsley (11-8) yielded two unearned runs on only two hits while walking a pair and fanning seven, with the right-hander combining with Hung-Chi Kuo to set down the last 10 Giants' hitters as the Dodgers ended a brief two-game slide. Kuo recorded his eighth save of the season.
"I seem to catch the Giants on my good day," Billingsley said. "The first few innings I was ahead on my fastball. As the game progressed, I threw more changeups. I could have gone out for the ninth if they wanted me to."
Rod Barajas continued his hot hitting since joining the Dodgers -- a team he grew up rooting for -- by hitting a home run in last night's triumph. Casey Blake went 2-for-3 with a pair of runs scored for Los Angeles, which has now won seven of 13 matchups with the Giants thus far in 2010.
Barry Zito's (8-11) misery continued, as the Giants lefty was charged with four runs on four hits and four walks while fanning five in just four innings to suffer the loss. He remained winless in his last 10 games, the longest streak of his career.
San Francisco stayed three games behind NL West-leading San Diego, which lost at home to Colorado Friday night, but fell to three games behind Philadelphia in the race for the NL Wild Card.
The Giants had won in five of their past six meetings with the Dodgers prior to Friday's setback.
<< Tigers vie to break even in matchup with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers can pull back to .500 in the midst of a
lengthy second-half slump tonight, when they visit Kauffman Stadium for the
second of three weekend games with the host Kansas City Royals.
The Tigers won Friday's
<< Cellar-dwellers face off again in Bucs-Nats clash
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh lefty Paul Maholm can make it two straight wins
for the Pirates and end his own four-decision skid tonight, when the
Washington Nationals return to PNC Park for the middle test of a three-game
weekend series.
T
<< Halladay aims to pitch surging Phils past Brewers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Halladay goes after win No. 17 this evening, when the
playoff-hopeful Philadelphia Phillies continue their three-game series against
the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park.
Halladay has lost his last two starts, t
<< Rays resume playoff push in second test with Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays own the best road record of any team in
the majors this season, in part due to their success at Baltimore's Camden
Yards. The postseason contenders will have their sights set on another victory
over the hom
Jimenez keeps three-shot lead in Switzerland >>
Crans Montana, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miguel Angel Jimenez protected
his three-shot lead at the European Masters Saturday with a three-under 68 in
the third round.
Jimenez appeared to have shot a 67 after rolling in a long birdie
Eagles acquire DE Barnes from Ravens >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles acquired defensive
end Antwan Barnes from Baltimore in exchange for an undisclosed draft pick.
Barnes has spent his entire three-year career with the Ravens, appearing in 38
games.
Woods rebounds nicely with a 65 >>
Norton, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods shot a five-under 65 in the second
round of the Deutsche Bank Championship on Saturday, matching his lowest round
of the season.
More importantly? Woods played well enough to ensure he makes the 36
Soderling reaches fourth round in Flushing >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time French Open runner-up
Robin Soderling was an easy third-round winner Saturday at the U.S. Open.
The fifth-seeded Soderling whipped Dutchman Thiemo De Bakker 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 on
Day 6 at the US
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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