Dixon, Mississippi State upend No. 14 Kentucky

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/27/2007 - Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anthony Dixon ran for a touchdown and caught another, leading Mississippi State to a surprising 31-14 victory over 14th- ranked Kentucky.

Dixon galloped for 75 yards and caught a short touchdown pass for the Bulldogs (5-4, 2-3 SEC), who entered play Saturday on a two-game slide following a 38-13 pounding at the hands of West Virginia.

Wesley Carroll managed the game at quarterback, completing 17-of-28 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns. Eight different Bulldog receivers hauled in passes with Christian Ducre leading the way with five catches for 30 yards. Ducre also ran for a team-high 119 yards in the victory.

The running back's 34-yard TD scamper with 8:15 left in the fourth gave the Bulldogs a 31-14 lead.

Andre' Woodson threw for 230 yards on 24-of-42 passing with two touchdowns and three interceptions for Kentucky, which has dropped three of four since a 5-0 start. Its only win in that time was a triple overtime victory over then-No.1 LSU.

Steve Johnson caught a pair of touchdown passes for the Wildcats (6-3, 2-3) in defeat.

The Bulldogs took their opening drive 70 yards for an early touchdown. Carroll's 15-yard toss to Eric Butler was one of three third-down conversions on the 14-play march that ended with Carroll's 11-yard scoring strike to Jason Husband.

Kentucky answered right back with the ball in the hands of its star quarterback Woodson. After three consecutive Derrick Locke runs and an incompletion, Woodson threw a 31-yard pass to Dicky Lyons down to the Mississippi State 30-yard line. Woodson finished off the touchdown march with an 18-yard completion to Johnson.

Mississippi State continued its offensive onslaught on the next series, marching 80 yards for another score. The methodical drive included several key pass plays, including a 12-yard strike to Eric Hoskins, putting the football at the Wildcats 24-yard line. The Bulldogs punched it into the end zone via the air attack from in close, as Carroll lobbed a one-yard touchdown to Dixon.

The Wildcats marched towards a tie late in the half, a drive aided by a questionable personal foul penalty as Woodson lunged for a first down near the right sideline. However, Lones Seiber misfired wide right from 34 yards away to keep the deficit at 14-7.

Kentucky then coughed up the opening kickoff of the second half, and not even halfway through the third quarter, coughed the ball up again.

Alfonso Smith fumbled the kickoff and the Bulldogs recovered at the Wildcats 32-yard line. Ducre scampered for 11 yards and Carroll found Aubrey Bell for 12 yards to set up Adam Carlson's 31-yard field goal.

Woodson and his offense went three and out on the next series, and a punt miscue again gave Mississippi State excellent field position. Tim Masthay fumbled off a high long snap and K.J. Wright fell on the football at the Wildcats 26-yard line.

Carroll found a wide open Hubbard in the middle of the field for 22 yards on 3rd-and-11, and several plays later, Dixon ran off right tackle and jumped into the end zone from one yard away for the 24-7 advantage.

Desperate for a spark, the Wildcats forced the issue on 4th-and-8 from the Bulldogs 37-yard line, and Woodson tossed a pass that Johnson plucked out of midair for an acrobatic scoring strike and a 24-14 game.

The Wildcats turned the ball over on three of their next five drives, with one punt and the other ending on downs.

Game Notes

Kentucky had outscored its opponents 181-97 in the second half this season...Kentucky still leads the all-time series 20-15...The Bulldogs exacted revenge for last season's 34-31 setback to the Wildcats...Mississippi State rushed for only 45 yards in last week's loss, but scampered for 200 yards in this victory...Mississippi State has next weekend off before hosting Alabama on November 10...Kentucky also has a week off before traveling to Nashville to play Vanderbilt.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.