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04/08/2010 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sidney Crosby posted a goal and three assists, as Pittsburgh recorded a spirited 7-3 victory over the New York Islanders in the final regular-season game at Mellon Arena.
Crosby, the 22-year-old Pens captain, is on the cusp of reaching the 50-goal mark for the first time and also eclipsed the 500-point mark for his career. He has recorded four goals and 11 assists in his last six games for 104 total points this season, and took over the NHL goal-scoring lead from Alex Ovechkin by one (49-48).
Bill Guerin tallied twice while Tyler Kennedy added a goal and a helper for the Penguins, who have won four of six and pulled into a tie again for the Atlantic Division lead with New Jersey. The Devils lost to Florida, but hold the tiebreaker after winning all six meetings with Pittsburgh this season.
Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 32 shots for the win.
Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey tallied for the Islanders, who had made a brief but futile charge towards a playoff berth with five wins in their last six games coming in.
Martin Biron started and took the loss after he allowed four goals on 10 shots in the first period. Dwayne Roloson finished the contest by making 22 saves.
Fleury made three successive stops on an Islanders' short-handed break early in the second, but he couldn't stop Bailey's deflection of a Mark Streit shot for a 4-3 game at 6:49.
Guerin was ruled to have made contact with a Crosby slapshot on a Pittsburgh power play with 5:26 to play in the second for a two-goal edge then Kennedy's blast made it 6-3 just over two minutes later.
Guerin tallied once more, at the 1:46 mark of the third period for a four-goal bulge and the home team coasted to victory.
Pittsburgh got off to a hot start after Brooks Orpik rippled the net from the right circle just 23 seconds in, then Alex Goligoski struck from 15 feet out during a power play at 5:01.
Moulson's deflection in the slot pulled the Isles within a goal on a power play at 8:29, but Evgeni Malkin's solo rush down the left wing made it 3-1 for Pittsburgh with 4:45 left in the first.
Okposo's wrister less than two minutes later brought New York back within a goal, but Crosby registered his 49th of the season inside the final minute.
Game Notes
Mellon, once known as the Civic Arena, is the oldest building in the NHL, and has housed the Penguins since their 1967 inception. Pittsburgh will move into Consol Energy Center for next season...Mario Lemieux holds the franchise record with six 50-or-more goal seasons, the last coming in 1996-97...Lemieux also posted six straight 100-point years to begin his career, while Crosby has four in his first five...Pittsburgh has won four of five meetings with the Islanders this season.
<< Orioles hold off Rays to avoid sweep
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Garrett Atkins went 2-for-4 with two
runs batted in, and the Baltimore Orioles hung on for a 5-4 victory over the
Tampa Bay Rays to salvage a game in this season-opening three-game set.
Nolan Reim
<< Bolts nip playoff-bound Sens in shootout
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Teddy Purcell scored the lone goal in the
shootout, lifting the Tampa Bay Lightning to a 4-3 win over the Ottawa
Senators.
Purcell was Tampa Bay's third shooter and used a forehand-to-backhand mov
<< Panthers topple division-seeking Devils
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nathan Horton scored the game-deciding goal in
the third period and Scott Clemmensen made 42 saves against his former team,
as the Florida Panthers held off the New Jersey Devils, 3-2.
Horton and Michael F
<< Golf Tidbits: Inside the ropes, Tiger hasn't changed much
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As you might have noticed, Tiger Woods
returned to action Thursday at The Masters.
For Woods, it was the end of a self-imposed "indefinite break" that started
soon after his Thanksgiving weekend car accide
Boston College, Wisconsin to meet NCAA men's ice hockey final >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ben Smith notched a pair of goals and one
assist, as Boston College dominated Miami-Ohio, 7-1, in a Frozen Four matchup
from Ford Field.
Joe Whitney added a goal and two helpers for the Eagles (28-10-3)
Clippers-Kings, Box >>
L.A. CLIPPERS (94)Butler 3-10 0-0 6, Gooden 8-13 1-1 17, Kaman 10-16 3-3 23, Davis 4-12 1-2 11, Gordon 7-14 3-4 21, Collins 2-5 0-0 4, Jordan 3-4 0-0 6, Blake 1-5 0-0 3, Skinner 0-1 0-0 0, Brown 1-2 1-1 3, Novak 0-0 0-0 0. Totals 39-82 9-11 94.SA
Canucks-Sharks Sum >>
Vancouver 0 0 2-2San Jose 1 3 0-4First Period-1, San Jose, Pavelski 25 (Clowe, Setoguchi), 18:35.Second Period-2, San Jose, Couture 5 (Vlasic, T.Mitchell), 1:57. 3, San Jose, Thornton 20 (Heatley, Marleau), 5:16. 4, San Jose, Malhotra 14 (T.M
Cabrera drives Indians past White Sox in 11 innings >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Asdrubal Cabrera drove in the game-winning
run with two outs in the 11th, and the Cleveland Indians notched a 5-3 win
over the Chicago White Sox in the rubber match of a season-opening three-game
set.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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