Busch powers past Hornaday Jr. for truck win

Autoracing Betting Lines

10/27/2007 - Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch captured Saturday afternoon's EasyCare Vehicle Service Contracts 200 at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. The No.51 Chevrolet crossed the finish line 0.971 second ahead of Ron Hornaday Jr. but Hornaday Jr.'s finish was good enough to give him the series points lead.

The victory was Busch's first win in eight starts this season and fifth of his truck career.

Hornaday Jr. brought the field to the green flag for 130 laps of tight high- speed racing. But right beside him was the points leader and they raced into the first turn, side-by-side. Hornaday Jr. held off Skinner to lead the first lap and gain five important bonus points.

But while Hornaday Jr. had his eye on Skinner, Busch slipped underneath both drivers to grab the lead on lap three. Busch quickly moved out to a one and-a-half second lead over Skinner.

Before 20 laps were completed Hornaday Jr. got around Skinner for second place and it appeared Skinner was just cruising around waiting for later in the race.

Busch was still the leader on lap 31 when the caution flag flew for the first time. All the leaders pitted for fuel and tires. Skinner's crew decided on a two-tire stop and the decision gave him the race lead. Mark Martin also beat Busch off pit road to grab second place.

Two laps into the green-flag run Hornaday Jr. charged into the lead from fourth place. Busch was still fast after the stop and got around Skinner for second place.

A crash involving Josh Wise, Clay Rogers and Chad Chaffin on lap 46 slowed the action.

Most of the leaders stayed out, but Skinner needed to change tires because of a problem and it left him at the back in 17th place.

The race restarted on lap 54 and amazingly, the "King of Restarts" as Hornaday Jr. is known, was beaten into the first turn by Busch. Busch ran with the clean air and rebuilt his lead to almost one second. Then Hornaday Jr. fought back and on lap 67 slipped below Busch to take the lead back.

Meanwhile, by lap 60 Skinner was already up to 12th place and he cracked the top-10 on lap 68.

Another caution flag slowed the pace and all the leaders pitted. Busch was the big winner with Johnny Benson and Martin just behind. Hornaday Jr. seemed to have a slow stop and fell from first to fourth. Benson must have really found the setup, because he charged past Busch for the lead and built the lead to one second in just a few laps.

Now Hornaday Jr. got around Busch who seemed to be using up his tires quicker than the other leaders. By lap 102 Hornaday Jr caught and passed Benson for the lead.

A caution flag with 25 laps to go (Jack Sprague accident) set up the final stops and the run to the checkered flag

This time the No.33 KHI pit crew did the job and Hornaday Jr. beat everyone back onto the track. Joey Clanton was second with Benson third.

Hornaday Jr. got a good restart, but the man on the move was Busch who charged through the field like a hot knife through butter. He was fourth with 18 laps to go and second with 16 laps remaining. Benson fought back and retook second, but Busch still held the inside lane and wasn't giving up.

A dozen laps to go and four trucks were left with a chance for the win - Hornaday Jr., Benson, Busch and Martin. Then a caution flag on lap 118 when Chad McCumbee's truck left some fluid on the track to slow the race to a crawl.

They restarted on lap 122 and Busch charged to the lead building the margin to four lengths with six laps to go. He kept it going and flew to the checkered flag unchallenged the rest of the way.

Benson, Martin and Skinner completed the top-five.

Despite finishing a solid fifth, Skinner lost his championship lead to Hornaday Jr. He will go to the next race, at the Texas Motor Speedway, four points back (3,547 - 3,543).

Wwdaum Autoracing Betting News


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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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